Utility of testing for third-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP3) antibodies in individuals who present with new musculoskeletal symptoms but have a negative second-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP2) antibody test.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of third-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP3) antibodies in predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in individuals with new musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms and a negative second-generation anti-CCP antibody test (anti-CCP2-). METHODS: 469 anti-CCP2- individuals underwent baseline anti-CCP3 testing (QUANTA Lite CCP3; Inova Diagnostics) and received a post enrolment 12-month questionnaire. A rheumatologist confirmed or excluded diagnosis of IA. Univariable/multivariable analyses were performed to assess the value of anti-CCP3 in predicting IA development in these anti-CCP2- individuals. RESULTS: Only 16/469 (3.4%) anti-CCP2- individuals had a positive anti-CCP3 test. Of these 16 individuals, 4 developed IA. In addition, 61/469 (13.0%) anti-CCP2- individuals self-reported, to have developed, IA. Progression was confirmed in 43/61 of them (70.5%); of whom 30/43 (69.8%) and 13/43 (30.2%) were given a diagnosis of IA and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respectively. In qualitative univariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity was associated with self-reported progression (p<0.01) and IA (p=0.03), but not with RA. Anti-CCP3 levels differed significantly between progressors and non-progressors (p<0.01) for all three categories. At the manufacturer's cut-off, OR for progression ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 0.5 to 18.6; RA) to 7.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 24.0; self-reported progression). Interestingly, when cut-offs for anti-CCP3 were optimised, lower values (≥5 units) significantly increased the OR for progression in all three categories. In multivariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity at the manufacturer's cut-off did not remain associated with IA progression, while this lower cut-off value (≥5 units) was associated with diagnosis of RA (p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Anti-CCP3 testing could improve the prediction of IA development in anti-CCP2- individuals with new MSK symptoms.

Factors associated with resolution of ultrasound subclinical synovitis in anti-CCP-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms: a UK prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical synovitis occurs in a third of individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis. The objective of this study was to assess the reversibility of subclinical synovitis in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis who are positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody with musculoskeletal symptoms and investigate factors associated with its resolution within 12 months. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, recruiting individuals aged 18 years or older who were anti-CCP-positive with a new non-specific musculoskeletal symptom but no clinical synovitis. Referrals were made through primary or secondary care. Participants attended a baseline visit, which included a clinical assessment, blood tests, patient questionnaires, and a musculoskeletal ultrasound scan (ie, of wrists and metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal, and metatarsophalangeal joints), and then follow-up visits every 3 months for the first year, with a repeat ultrasound scan every 12 months. Participants with subclinical synovitis (ie, grey scale ≥1 and power Doppler ≥1) in at least one joint at baseline were selected for this analysis. Investigation of good prognostic factors by 12 months was done first using univariable analysis to identify significant factors in participants with no missing data. Then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to establish the optimal cutoffs for significant continuous variables. Finally, a modified Poisson regression approach was performed to identify the best prediction model and was adjusted for confounders, using data from all participants, with missing values imputed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012764. FINDINGS: Between June 30, 2008, and Feb 24, 2020, 451 participants consented to participate in the CCP study and 122 (27%) individuals had subclinical synovitis at baseline, of whom 90 (74%) had data available at 12 months. Mean age was 54·1 years (SD 12·5), and 63 (70%) of 90 participants were women and 27 (30%) were men. Subclinical synovitis resolved in 43 (48%) of 90 participants, whereas subclinical synovitis persisted in 47 (52%) participants, 27 (57%) of whom developed clinical synovitis within 12 months. In the multivariable analysis, low anti-CCP titre (relative risk [RR] 1·52, 95% CI 1·04-2·22), negative rheumatoid factor (1·54, 0·92-2·58), subclinical synovitis in only one joint (1·62, 1·04-2·50), and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 15 mm/h or lower (1·82, 1·15-2·87) were predictors of subclinical synovitis resolution within 12 months (ie, good prognostic factors). ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0·84 (95% CI 0·76-0·92; p<0·0001). Resolution occurred in seven (100%) of seven participants with all four factors present, and in only one (7%) of 14 participants with none of the factors present. INTERPRETATION: In individuals who were anti-CCP-positive, subclinical synovitis disappeared in approximately half of the participants by 12 months and was associated with the presence of good prognostic factors. Subclinical synovitis should be interpreted in the context of these additional factors. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

Ultrasound in anti-CCP+ at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis: development of a novel 6-joint protocol for feasible risk prediction.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate, in anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no clinical synovitis (CCP+ at-risk), the additional value of ultrasound (US) for the prediction of inflammatory arthritis (IA). Furthermore, to define a concise US protocol for feasible risk prediction. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data were collected in 417 CCP+ at-risk (Leeds CCP cohort) with a baseline US scan assessing synovitis and bone erosions in 36 joints, and a follow-up duration ≥24 months. Multivariable binary regression models for IA development at 24 months evaluated routine clinical variables associated with IA alone ("clinical" model) and combined with a 36-joint US scanning protocol ("clinical-US extended" model). A "clinical-US short" model was developed. RESULTS: At 24 months, 92/417 (22.1%) CCP+ at-risk developed IA (median time: 7 months, IQR : 3-12). The "clinical-US extended" model performed better than the "clinical" model (AUC 0.788 vs AUC 0.731 respectively, p< 0.001) with an odds ratio for IA development of 3.18 (95% IC 1.80-5.63) for US synovitis and 2.54 (95% IC 1.21-5.37) for bone erosions. The "clinical-US short" model, which retained the wrists, knees and MTP5 joints, performed better (AUC 0.782) than the "clinical" model (p< 0.001) and similarly (difference in Akaike information criteria <2) to the "clinical-US extended" model. CONCLUSIONS: US provides valuable information for predicting progression to IA in CCP+ individuals both alone and in addition to clinical variables. US synovitis was associated with a threefold increase risk of IA development. A concise US protocol of 6 joints provides clinically feasible risk prediction in CCP+ at-risk.

Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis. OBJECTIVE: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred. MEASUREMENTS: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done. RESULTS: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years. LIMITATIONS: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability. CONCLUSION: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

Prioritising referrals of individuals at-risk of RA: guidance based on results of a 10-year national primary care observational study.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms are among the commonest reasons for primary care assessments; however, few individuals will be diagnosed with an inflammatory arthritis (IA) within the following year. The purpose of this study was to investigate, in individuals with new MSK symptoms, the association between patient factors and risk of progression to IA, in order to optimise primary care referrals to rheumatology. METHODS: Individuals ≥16 years old with new non-specific MSK symptoms and no clinical synovitis were recruited by primary care across the UK from July 2007 until May 2019. Those testing positive for the anti-CCP2 assay (anti-CCP+) were invited to Leeds for follow-up. Subjects with a negative result (anti-CCP-) were sent a 1-year questionnaire, and general practitioners were contacted to confirm whether the individual had been diagnosed with an IA by a rheumatologist. Predictors for progression were assessed using multivariable regression analysis. RESULTS: Six thousand seven hundred eighty individuals were recruited: 3% were anti-CCP+, of whom 45% progressed to IA, predominantly rheumatoid arthritis. Anti-CCP+ participants with high antibody levels had an odds ratio (OR) for progression to IA of 9.42 [P < 0.001, 95% CI (3.13-28.30)], hand pain, OR 2.74 [P = 0.043, 95% CI (1.03-7.27)] and foot pain, OR 4.10 [P = 0.003, 95% CI (1.59-10.54)]. In low-level anti-CCP+ individuals, absence of pain in hands or feet had a negative predictive value of 96% for progression to IA. One-year follow-up data were available for 5640 anti-CCP- individuals, of whom 53 were diagnosed with IA (0.93%). Pain in hands, OR 2.51 [P = 0.018, 95% CI (1.17-5.39)] or knees, OR 3.03 [P = 0.003, 95% CI (1.47-6.25)] were associated with development of IA within 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest prospective primary care study of individuals at risk of IA, and the first one to prospectively investigate the outcome of MSK symptoms in a large anti-CCP- cohort. High anti-CCP levels and pain in hands/feet indicated an increased likelihood of progression to IA. In patients with low anti-CCP level and no pain in the hands/feet, progression is unlikely. In anti-CCP- patients, those with hand or knee pain were at increased risk of progression. This study demonstrates that routinely available tests and joint symptoms provide useful discrimination that may be used to prioritise referrals to rheumatology and avoid a delayed diagnosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT, NCT02012764 . Registered 25 January 2007.

Ultrasound subclinical synovitis in anti-CCP-positive at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms: an important and predictable stage in the rheumatoid arthritis continuum.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether anti-CCP2-positive at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CCP2+ at-risk) develop US subclinical synovitis before inflammatory arthritis and if US subclinical synovitis can be predicted. METHODS: First, US scans of CCP2+ at-risk individuals who developed inflammatory arthritis ('progressors') were reviewed for subclinical synovitis prior to inflammatory arthritis development. Patients in whom the pre-progression US scan was negative but the scan was conducted >6 months before progression were excluded. Subsequently, regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of US synovitis in CCP2+ at-risk individuals without baseline US abnormalities who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset. RESULTS: US subclinical synovitis was detected in one or more scan in 75 of 97 progressors (77.3%) {median time to inflammatory arthritis development from first evidence of US synovitis 26.5 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 7-60]}, in whom one or more scan was available, excluding those with a negative scan >6 months from inflammatory arthritis development (n = 38). In 220 CCP2+ at-risk individuals with normal baseline US scans, who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset, US synovitis was detected in 69/220 (31.4%) [median time to first developing US synovitis 56.4 weeks (IQR 33.0-112.0)]. In the multivariable analysis, only anti-CCP3 antibodies were predictive for the development of US synovitis [odds ratio 4.75 (95% CI 1.97, 11.46); P < 0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: In anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals, a stage of subclinical synovitis usually precedes the development of inflammatory arthritis. Anti-CCP2+/CCP3+ individuals without clinical or US subclinical synovitis may represent the optimal window of opportunity for intervention to prevent joint disease.

In anti-CCP+ at-risk individuals, radiographic bone erosions are uncommon and are not associated with the development of clinical arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence, distribution and predictive value for the development of inflammatory arthritis (IA) of conventional radiography (CR) bone erosions (BE) in anti-CCP positive (CCP+) at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis. METHODS: Baseline CR of the hands and feet of 418 CCP+ at-risk individuals were analysed. The presence of US-BE was explored in the anatomical areas in which CR-BE were reported. Hands and feet CR at the time of progression were analysed in a subset of individuals who developed IA (73/123, 59.3%). Logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate the predictive value of baseline CR-BE for the development of IA in 394 CCP+ individuals with ≥1 follow-up visit. RESULTS: BE were detected in 17/418 (4.1%) CCP+ at-risk individuals (median Simple Erosions Narrowing Score-BE = 2.0, IQR: 1.0-2.0; median Sharp van der Heijde score-BE = 4.0, IQR: 3.0-8.5), most frequently in the foot joints (11/17, 64.7% individuals). A total of 123/394 (31.2%) CCP+ at-risk individuals developed IA; 7/17 (41.2%) with, and 116/377 (30.8%) without BE on CR (P = 0.37). US-BE were found in 4/7 (57.1%) individuals with CR-BE who developed IA, but only in 1/10 (10.0%) who did not. At the time of progression, new BE were detected in 4/73 (5.5%) CCP+ individuals on repeated CR. In the regression analyses, baseline CR-BE were not predictive for the development of IA. CONCLUSIONS: In CCP+ at-risk individuals with MSK symptoms, CR-detected BE are uncommon and do not predict the development of IA.

Real-world single centre use of JAK inhibitors across the rheumatoid arthritis pathway.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate real-world efficacy of approved JAK inhibitors (JAKi) tofacitinib and baricitinib in a large, single-centre cohort of RA patients across the treatment pathway, including those refractory to multiple biologic drugs. METHODS: All RA patients, treated with tofacitinib (from time of compassionate access scheme) or baricitinib since approval in 2017 had DAS28-CRP scores and components recorded at baseline, 3 and 6 months (with retrospective data for compassionate access scheme). Efficacy was evaluated in the total cohort, each treatment group, and subgroups of number of prior biologic classes failed. RESULTS: One hundred and fifteen patients were treated with a JAKi (tofacitinib 54, baricitinib 69, 8 both); 76.4% female; mean (s.d.) age 57.3 (14.3) years. On average patients had received three previous bDMARDs; 11 (9.6%) were bDMARD naïve. Combined group baseline DAS28-CRP (s.d.) 5.62(1.14) improved by 1.49(1.44) and 1.67(1.61) at 3 and 6 months, respectively, comparable in individual JAKi groups; with 24% in at least low disease activity at 3 months. The biggest improvement was observed in the biologic-naïve group (mean DAS28-CRP improved from 5.16-2.14 after 6 months); while those with prior exposure to minimum three bDMARD classes had DAS28-CRP improvement of >1.2. Five out of 8 patients treated with both JAKi sequentially responded. Twelve patients previously unresponsive to IL-6 blockade responded to JAKi. No unexpected safety events were recorded. Two cases of venous thromboembolism were observed. CONCLUSION: JAK inhibition is effective in a real-world population of RA patients, including in a subset of patients refractory to multiple previous bDMARDs.

Third-Generation Anti-Cyclic Citrullinated Peptide Antibodies Improve Prediction of Clinical Arthritis in Individuals at Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To 1) determine the prevalence of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide 3 (anti-CCP3) antibodies in anti-CCP2 antibody-positive (anti-CCP2+) at-risk individuals, and 2) explore the additional value of anti-CCP3 antibodies in anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals for predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis. METHODS: Stored serum samples obtained from 347 anti-CCP2+ (BioPlex 2200; Bio-Rad) at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis were tested for anti-CCP3 antibodies. Anti-CCP2 titers were categorized as low or high, and anti-CCP3 titers were categorized as negative, low, or strong. Progression to inflammatory arthritis was defined as the development of clinical synovitis in ≥1 joint. Only subjects with ≥1 follow-up visit were included in the progression analysis (n = 291). RESULTS: In the 347 samples included, anti-CCP3 antibody titers tended to be either negative (n = 138 [39.7%]) or strongly positive (n =189 [54.4%]), with very few subjects showing a low titer (n = 20 [5.7%]). In contrast, for anti-CCP2 antibodies, more low titers were observed (n = 103 [29.7%]). Eighty-eight of 291 subjects (30.2%) developed inflammatory arthritis. The rate of progression to inflammatory arthritis in the low-titer anti-CCP2 group and the high-titer anti-CCP2 group fell from 7.5% to 3.3% and from 38.9% to 9.8%, respectively, when anti-CCP3 was negative. Progression in the high-titer anti-CCP2 group increased from 38.9% to 48.4% when anti-CCP3 was strongly positive. The area under the curve was 0.72 for anti-CCP2 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.66, 0.78) and 0.76 for anti-CCP3 (95% CI 0.70, 0.81) for assessment of progression. In the multivariable analysis, the odds ratio for the development of inflammatory arthritis in anti-CCP3+ subjects was 1.73 (95% CI 1.20, 2.51) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Anti-CCP3 antibodies improve the prediction of inflammatory arthritis in anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals. The impact of anti-CCP3 antibody status for the risk stratification of individuals with high-titer anti-CCP2 is particularly notable.

Improvement in insulin resistance is greater when infliximab is added to methotrexate during intensive treatment of early rheumatoid arthritis-results from the IDEA study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the change in established biomarkers of cardiovascular (CV) risk, namely, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and insulin resistance (IR) in patients with early RA treated with two different treat-to-target strategies. METHODS: Fasting glucose, lipids, insulin and NT-proBNP were measured at baseline, weeks 26 and 78 in 79 DMARD-naïve RA patients, free of CV disease, as part of a double-blind randomized controlled trial of MTX with either infliximab (IFX) or methylprednisolone as induction therapy. Homeostasis model assessment-estimated IR (HOMA-IR) (glucose*insulin/405) was used to measure IR. Multiple imputation was employed, and linear regression analyses were adjusted for baseline values. RESULTS: Changes in DAS44-CRP did not differ between the treatment arms at weeks 26 and 78. Mean TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP improved in both groups at weeks 26 and 78, although change in NT-proBNP was not statistically significant at week 78. Changes in TC/HDL-C and NT-proBNP were similar between treatment arms, but HOMA-IR values in the IFX + MTX arm were 42% lower than those treated with MTX + methylprednisolone at week 78 (P = 0.003); the difference remained significant after adjustment for baseline BMI, ACPA positivity, smoking status and intramuscular glucocorticoid use (P = 0.007). CONCLUSION: When implementing a treat-to-target approach, treatment of early RA was associated with improvement in TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP, and a greater long-term improvement in HOMA-IR was seen in those treated with IFX. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EU Clinical Trials Register, http://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu, Eudract-2005-005013-37; ISRTCNregisrty, http://www.isrctn.com, ISRCTN48638981.

Enriching case selection for imminent RA: the use of anti-CCP antibodies in individuals with new non-specific musculoskeletal symptoms - a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Around 1% of the population test positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies. This biomarker predicts the progression to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but over a variable time frame. To increase its clinical relevance, this study sought to determine (1) if the proportion of anti-CCP-positive individuals could be enriched by case selection of people attending primary care with new non-specific musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CS) and (2) whether these individuals progress rapidly to inflammatory arthritis (IA), in particular RA. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, individuals aged ≥18 years with new non-specific MSK symptoms, without CS, were recruited from primary care in the UK. Anti-CCP-positive individuals were invited for follow-up in the rheumatology department, Leeds. Those who tested negative were sent questionnaires 12 months later. RESULTS: 2028 individuals were recruited. Of these, 2.8% (57/2028) were anti-CCP positive, of whom 47% (27/57) developed IA - 24 RA, 1 undifferentiated IA (UIA), 2 polymyositis; 92.6% (25/27) within 12 months, median 1.8 months (IQR 1.0-4.3, range 0.3-16.1). Of the anti-CCP-negative individuals, 1.3% (20/1559) developed IA (1 UIA, 13 RA, 6 psoriatic arthritis); 75% (15/20) within 12 months. The relative risk for developing RA within 12 months in the anti-CCP-positive group was 66.8 (95% CI 32.2 to 138.4, p<0.001); for IA, it was 45.5 (95% CI 25.4 to 81.6, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Selecting individuals with new non-specific MSK symptoms without CS enriched the prevalence of anti-CCP positivity to 2.8%. Those who tested positive had a high risk of rapidly developing RA. The cost-effectiveness of this approach will need to be determined. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02012764.